Al Shabab 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Shabab at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Damac meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 10 February 2022 at 14:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al Shabab's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Shabab, 0 for Damac and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 58% versus Damac 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 58% | Damac 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.02 xG and Damac 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.192 / defence 1.009 | Damac attack 0.860 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.193. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.527 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Al Shabab games / 19 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 59% | Draw 23% | Damac 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Damac 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 60% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Feb 2022, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 59% | Draw 23% | Damac 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Shabab 2.02 / Damac 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.192 / def 1.009 | Damac attack 0.860 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Damac xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Damac kick off?
Al Shabab vs Damac kicked off at 14:20 on Thursday 10 February 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Damac?
Al Shabab 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Shabab vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Damac part of?
Al Shabab vs Damac is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 59% chance of winning, Damac a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Shabab and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Damac in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Damac (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.19x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.86x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.35
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.06
1.03
Damac xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
2%
42.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.03 for Damac, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 10W 7D 2L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 8W 6D 5L from 19 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.58 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.20 PPG from 10 outings (6W 4D 0L).
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 10W 7D 2L in their last 19 games (1.95 PPG), while Damac have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Damac away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.20 PPG; Damac away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Damac in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 1-4 on 31 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
3
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Damac have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Damac 1-3 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Damac?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 60%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Shabab and 60% for Damac. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Damac in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al Shabab's games and 50% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Shabab's matches and 60% of Damac's.
Do Al Shabab and Damac tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Damac in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Damac 2-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.02 xG and Damac 1.03 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Damac attack 0.86 / defence 1.53, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 59% | Draw 23% | Damac 18%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 58%, Damac 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.95 PPG, Damac 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.