Al Shabab 3-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al Taawon meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 December 2021 at 13:50 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 5W 2D 0L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.43 PPG. They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al Shabab's 2.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al Taawon's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 38% and Al Taawon 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 54% | Al Taawon 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.17 xG and Al Taawon 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.277 / defence 0.973 | Al Taawon attack 1.084 / defence 1.516. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.056. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.516 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al Shabab games / 13 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 61% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Al Taawon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 43% | Al Taawon 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 61% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Shabab 2.17 / Al Taawon 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.277 / def 0.973 | Al Taawon attack 1.084 / def 1.516 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al Taawon xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kicked off at 13:50 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Al Shabab 3 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 61% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.08x) against Al Shabab's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.76
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.28
1.11
Al Taawon xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
48.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.11 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 7W 4D 2L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 2W 5D 6L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Al Shabab are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.62 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 85%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.43 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 1-5 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 43%, Al Taawon 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Shabab and 86% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Al Shabab's games and 86% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Shabab's matches and 86% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Taawon 3-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.17 xG and Al Taawon 1.11 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Al Taawon attack 1.08 / defence 1.52, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 61% | Draw 21% | Al Taawon 18%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 54%, Al Taawon 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.