Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Shabab and Al Taawon meet at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 4W 3D 3L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al Taawon's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Taawon in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Shabab, 4 for Al Taawon and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 62% versus Al Taawon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 54% | Al Taawon 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.44 xG and Al Taawon 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.051 / defence 1.183 | Al Taawon attack 1.060 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.412. Data: 63 Al Shabab games / 64 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 31% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Al Taawon 2.22. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 31% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Shabab 1.44 / Al Taawon 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.051 / def 1.183 | Al Taawon attack 1.060 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Al Taawon xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Al Shabab 1 - 5 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 31% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Record (9 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 3 | Al Taawon 4W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.06x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
31%
3.21
23%
4.28
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.21
1.77
Al Taawon xG
3.21
31%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
5%
18.85
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.77 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 25W 17D 21L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 25W 16D 22L from 63 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.44 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (15W 6D 10L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 12W 7D 12L from 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Shabab are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.44 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 25W 16D 22L in their last 63 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.65 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 1-5 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 68%, Al Taawon 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Shabab) and 42% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Shabab's games and 48% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al Shabab's recent games and 42% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Shabab 1-5 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.44 xG and Al Taawon 1.77 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.77 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Al Taawon attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 31% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 45%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 54%, Al Taawon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.46 PPG, Al Taawon 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.