Al Shabab 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Hazm travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 18:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Pro League matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D D L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 0.33 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hazm trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 67% and Al-Hazm 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Shabab 67% | Al-Hazm 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.84 xG and Al-Hazm 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.142 / defence 1.380 | Al-Hazm attack 0.729 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.101. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Al Shabab games / 3 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 51% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Hazm 5.00. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 67% | Al-Hazm 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 18:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 51% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Shabab 1.84 / Al-Hazm 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.142 / def 1.380 | Al-Hazm attack 0.729 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Hazm xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 18:35 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab 2 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 51% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-D-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.42
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.95
1.11
Al-Hazm xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
3%
32.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.11 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 1L across 3 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 0.33 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Shabab have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al Shabab
0
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 6, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-4 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Hazm?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 67%, Al-Hazm at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Shabab and 67% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Shabab's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Shabab's matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.84 xG and Al-Hazm 1.11 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.14 / defence 1.38 against Al-Hazm attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 51% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 20%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 67%, Al-Hazm 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 0.33 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.