Al Riyadh 1-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al Riyadh and Al-Raed meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Riyadh have posted 3W 3D 4L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al-Raed (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Raed's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Al-Raed arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Riyadh, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Raed winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 45% versus Al-Raed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 55% | Al-Raed 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.04 xG and Al-Raed 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.671 / defence 0.977 | Al-Raed attack 0.955 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.405. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Al Riyadh games / 50 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 29% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 42%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Raed 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 30% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights