Al-Raed 2-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Wehda Club encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Raid Club Stadium plays host to Al-Raed versus Al Wehda Club in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:05 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Raed have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Al-Raed have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Al Wehda Club (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Al Wehda Club have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al-Raed have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Al Wehda Club managing 0 and 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2024, ended Al-Raed 1–0 Al Wehda Club — a Al-Raed win.

The head-to-head data gives Al-Raed an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Data

Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 52% versus Al Wehda Club 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 52% | Al Wehda Club 60%). Note also that Al Wehda Club surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Al-Raed recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.65 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.806 / defence 1.068 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.821 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.243. Al Wehda Club's defence rating of 1.409 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 40 games and Al Wehda Club's last 40.

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 50% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 1.99 | Draw 4.08 | Al Wehda Club 3.97. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Raed 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Wehda Club 50% (last 10 away games).

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