Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al Taee travel to Al Raid Club Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Al Raid Club Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al Taee — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al Taee away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Raed) versus 0.90 (Al Taee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Raed, 2 for Al Taee and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 3–4 with Al Taee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Taee trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 57% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 65% | Al Taee 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.66 xG and Al Taee 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.949 / defence 0.977 | Al Taee attack 0.713 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.404. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Al-Raed games / 60 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 52% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Al Taee 4.76. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al Taee 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 52% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Raed 1.66 / Al Taee 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.949 / def 0.977 | Al Taee attack 0.713 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Taee xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Al-Raed 1 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 52% chance of winning, Al Taee a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 2 | Al Taee 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taee in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.95) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.70
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.63
0.98
Al Taee xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
24.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.98 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 14D 29L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Al Taee's form line: 17W 10D 33L from 60 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.08 PPG, Al Taee on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (10W 5D 15L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 5W 5D 20L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.17 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al Taee
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 17W 10D 33L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al-Raed won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
3
Draws
2
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taee have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 53%, Al Taee 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Raed and 53% for Al Taee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Taee in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Raed's matches and 53% of Al Taee's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al Taee share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Al-Raed and Al Taee drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.66 xG and Al Taee 0.98 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Al Taee attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 52% | Draw 27% | Al Taee 21%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 65%, Al Taee 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.08 PPG, Al Taee 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.