Al-Raed 1-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City to face Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 27 December 2021 at 11:20 UTC.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 games at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City this term (2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Raed are significantly better at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.20 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 38% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 54% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.47 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.032 / defence 0.995 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.743 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.072. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al-Raed games / 13 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 52% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5.26. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 17% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 11:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 52% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Raed 1.47 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.032 / def 0.995 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.743 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 11:20 on Monday 27 December 2021 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Raed 1 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 52% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (1.03) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.74x) against Al-Raed's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.51
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.27
0.79
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
4%
22.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Raed and 0.79 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 4L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.15 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Al-Raed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.15 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 6D 4L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Raed's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 2.17 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
2
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Al-Raed) and 50% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Al-Raed and 33% for Al-Ahli Jeddah.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Al-Raed's recent games and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Raed edge out Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 at King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.47 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.79 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.74 / defence 1.27, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 52% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 19%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.38 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.