Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 4D 0L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W, Al-Hazm 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 5–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 69% and Al-Hazm 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Al-Hazm 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.42 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.411 / defence 0.776 | Al-Hazm attack 0.729 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.429. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 32 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hazm 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.42 / Al-Hazm 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.411 / def 0.776 | Al-Hazm attack 0.729 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 72% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.41x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.73x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.59
10%
10.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.22
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
10.08
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
9%
11.19
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
1%
112.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.81 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.22 PPG on a 21W 8D 3L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Al-Hazm's form line: 10W 9D 13L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 16 outings (10W 6D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 7D 6L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Hazm in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Current Season
Al-Hazm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 21W 8D 3L in their last 32 games (2.22 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%, Al-Hazm 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 56% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 62% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 56% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.42 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.41 / defence 0.78 against Al-Hazm attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 72% | Draw 18% | Al-Hazm 10%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 72%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.