Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Faisaly FC travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Faisaly FC — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.97 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% versus Al-Faisaly FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Qadisiyah FC 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.045 / defence 0.867 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.972 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.428. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 3 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Faisaly FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.76. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Faisaly FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Faisaly FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 / Al-Faisaly FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.045 / def 0.867 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.972 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Faisaly FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.04) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.07
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.20
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
14%
7.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
3%
35.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.20 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Faisaly FC.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.00 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%, Al-Faisaly FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 33% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Qadisiyah FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 3-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 1.20 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.38, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Faisaly FC 21%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 33%, Al-Faisaly FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Qadisiyah FC scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.