Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Qadisiyah FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al-Qadisiyah FC) versus 1.70 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% versus Al-Ettifaq 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.903 / defence 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.166 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.325. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 59 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% | Al-Ettifaq 70%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 / Al-Ettifaq 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.903 / def 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.166 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Ettifaq xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:05 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.56
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.19
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.19 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 16W 3D 6L from 25 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 10L across 25 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 9W 1D 2L from 12 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 6W 5D 1L across 12 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.40 PPG overall record — Al-Ettifaq travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 16W 3D 6L in their last 25 games (2.04 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 25%, Al-Ettifaq 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 58% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 58% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.19 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 37%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.