Al Okhdood 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al Taawon (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Okhdood face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Taawon travel to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to take on Al Okhdood in Pro League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Friday 11 April 2025 at 17:55 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Okhdood stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Okhdood's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al Taawon have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Taawon are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Al Taawon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al Okhdood. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Al Okhdood 0–1 Al Taawon — a Al Taawon win.
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Al Okhdood trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Taawon trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al Taawon 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al Taawon 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al Okhdood surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Al Taawon have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.79 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / defence 1.106 | Al Taawon attack 0.879 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.315. Al Taawon bring a tight defence (rating 0.684, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al Okhdood's projected output down. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 60 games and Al Taawon's last 60.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.36 | Draw 3.44 | Al Taawon 2.08. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Okhdood's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, matchday 27 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 17:55 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Al Okhdood 0.79 / Al Taawon 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / def 1.106 | Al Taawon attack 0.879 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al Taawon xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:55 UK time on Friday 11 April 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Al Okhdood 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon is a Pro League fixture (matchday 27) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 23% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Taawon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 60 games and Al Taawon's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
23%
4.36
29%
3.44
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.06
1.28
Al Taawon xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
46%
2.20
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.28 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Al Okhdood have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 15W 11D 34L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 26W 18D 16L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Okhdood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Okhdood have posted 0.93 PPG from their last 30 home games (8W 4D 18L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 12W 10D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.33 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al Taawon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 26W 18D 16L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.93 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Al Okhdood or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Okhdood have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Taawon have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Taawon?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al Taawon have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Taawon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 53%, Al Taawon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Okhdood) and 30% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 40%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taawon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al Taawon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 40% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Okhdood and Al Taawon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 30% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Taawon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 53% of Al Taawon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood and Al Taawon finished level at 1-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.79 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Al Taawon attack 0.88 / defence 0.68, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.