Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Fayha (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al-Fayha at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Okhdood stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 3D 5L at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Fayha — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fayha have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Al Okhdood.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Fayha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 52% versus Al-Fayha 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 52% | Al-Fayha 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.56 xG and Al-Fayha 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.814 / defence 1.378 | Al-Fayha attack 0.901 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.403. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Al Okhdood games / 58 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Okhdood 1.56 / Al-Fayha 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.814 / def 1.378 | Al-Fayha attack 0.901 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Al-Fayha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Al Okhdood 0 - 5 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 5W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
34%
2.94
24%
4.08
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.31
1.74
Al-Fayha xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
6%
16.78
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.74 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 12W 11D 35L from 58 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 25L across 58 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.81 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 5W 7D 17L from 29 games — 0.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.95 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 12W 11D 35L in their last 58 games (0.81 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 15W 18D 25L in their last 58 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.76 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Al-Fayha won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-5 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 59%, Al-Fayha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Okhdood and 62% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Fayha in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 48% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Okhdood's matches and 62% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fayha run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 0-5 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.56 xG and Al-Fayha 1.74 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.74 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.81 / defence 1.38 against Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 41%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al-Fayha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.