Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Nassr and Al-Raed meet at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's home record at Al Awal Park at King Saud University: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at Al Awal Park at King Saud University than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Nassr. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al-Raed (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Nassr, 0 for Al-Raed and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2022, ended 4–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 47% versus Al-Raed 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 62% | Al-Raed 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.62 xG and Al-Raed 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.195 / defence 0.863 | Al-Raed attack 1.083 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.260. Data: 54 Al-Nassr games / 53 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 3.70. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Nassr 1.62 / Al-Raed 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.195 / def 0.863 | Al-Raed attack 1.083 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Raed xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr 4 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 47% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Nassr 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.08x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.87
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.80
1.18
Al-Raed xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.18 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 34W 9D 10L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 17W 11D 25L from 53 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.32 PPG from 25 outings (18W 4D 3L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Nassr are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.21 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 34W 9D 10L in their last 53 games (2.09 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 17W 11D 25L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.32 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 4-0 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Raed have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Raed?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 60%, Al-Raed 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Nassr and 68% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Raed in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 56% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Nassr's matches and 68% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Raed 4-0 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.62 xG and Al-Raed 1.18 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against Al-Raed attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 47% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 27%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 62%, Al-Raed 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Raed's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.