Al-Nassr 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Mrsool Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 3W 0D 1L from 4 Pro League matches — 2.25 PPG. Last five: L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.75 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Al-Nassr) versus 2.25 (Al-Ittihad FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 100% and Al-Ittihad FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 100% | Al-Ittihad FC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.81 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.303 / defence 1.104 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.854 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.115. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 Al-Nassr games / 4 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 52% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ittihad FC 5.26. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 100% | Al-Ittihad FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mrsool Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 52% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Nassr 1.81 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.303 / def 1.104 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.854 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al-Ittihad FC xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Mrsool Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Nassr 1 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Mrsool Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 52% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.30x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
52%
1.93
30%
3.38
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.86
1.05
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
3%
32.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.05 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Nassr.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 3.67 scored and 0.67 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Ittihad FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad FC in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Nassr at 100%, Al-Ittihad FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Nassr and 100% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Nassr's games and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Nassr's matches and 100% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Nassr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 1-3 at Mrsool Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.81 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 1.10 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 52% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 19%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 100%, Al-Ittihad FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.