Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Saud University Stadium plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Nassr have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at King Saud University Stadium this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at King Saud University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Nassr's favour (2.10 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Al-Hazm managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 52% versus Al-Hazm 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 67% | Al-Hazm 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.05 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.366 / defence 0.742 | Al-Hazm attack 0.779 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.400. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Al-Nassr games / 21 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Hazm 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Hazm 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Hazm 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Hazm 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Nassr 2.05 / Al-Hazm 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.366 / def 0.742 | Al-Hazm attack 0.779 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at King Saud University Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr 4 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 66% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Nassr 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Nassr's attack rating (1.37) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.78x) against Al-Nassr's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.82
13%
7.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.86
0.81
Al-Hazm xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
7.46
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
58.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.81 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 17W 1D 3L from 21 games, a 2.48 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 9L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 9W 0D 1L from 10 games — 2.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 3W 4D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.05 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 17W 1D 3L in their last 21 games (2.48 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.70 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 1-5 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Nassr 4-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 60%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Nassr and 60% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Nassr's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Nassr's matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Hazm 4-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.05 xG and Al-Hazm 0.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hazm landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.37 / defence 0.74 against Al-Hazm attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Hazm 13%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Hazm 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.