Al Kholood 0-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Taawon travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 December 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Kholood — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Taawon — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Kholood register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Kholood have won 0, Al Taawon 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 60% versus Al Taawon 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al Taawon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.62 xG and Al Taawon 2.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.162 / defence 1.147 | Al Taawon attack 1.299 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.483. Al Taawon have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 2.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Al Kholood games / 43 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 27% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Al Taawon 2.00. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 2.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 27% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Al Kholood 1.62 / Al Taawon 2.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.162 / def 1.147 | Al Taawon attack 1.299 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.21
Al Taawon xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Taawon kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 26 December 2025 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Al Kholood 0 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 27% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Taawon in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Kholood's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 2.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
27%
3.73
23%
4.28
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.83
2.21
Al Taawon xG
3.73
27%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
11%
9.11
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
3%
33.95
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.21 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 4D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.56 PPG from 43 outings (19W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Kholood's home form reads 10W 2D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.49 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 15W 4D 24L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 19W 10D 14L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.52 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al Kholood have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
1
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Taawon?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al Taawon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-2 Al Taawon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al Taawon 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Kholood) and 38% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 43% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Kholood's recent games and 38% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Kholood 0-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.62 xG and Al Taawon 2.21 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.16 / defence 1.15 against Al Taawon attack 1.30 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 27% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 50%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al Taawon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.