Al Kholood 1-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Kholood welcome Al Shabab to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Kholood 0.70 PPG, Al Shabab 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Kholood, 2 for Al Shabab and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Kholood winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 55% versus Al Shabab 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al Shabab 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.95 xG and Al Shabab 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.744 / defence 1.368 | Al Shabab attack 0.834 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.344. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Al Kholood games / 53 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 23% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Al Shabab 1.96. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al Shabab 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 23% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Kholood 0.95 / Al Shabab 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.744 / def 1.368 | Al Shabab attack 0.834 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al Shabab xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Al Kholood 1 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 23% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Al Kholood 1W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Shabab in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.74) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
23%
4.34
26%
3.80
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.48
1.53
Al Shabab xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
5%
20.14
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.53 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Al Kholood have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 17W 5D 31L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 22W 13D 18L from 53 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Kholood have posted 1.19 PPG from 27 outings (10W 2D 15L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 9W 8D 10L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.58 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 17W 5D 31L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 22W 13D 18L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.19 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Kholood have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
0
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Shabab?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al Shabab have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al Kholood 1-0 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 52%, Al Shabab 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al Kholood) and 48% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Shabab in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 52% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al Kholood's matches and 48% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Kholood and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al Shabab 1-0 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 0.95 xG and Al Shabab 1.53 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.74 / defence 1.37 against Al Shabab attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 23% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 51%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al Shabab 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.