Al Kholood 2-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al Kholood welcome Al Khaleej Saihat to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Kholood) versus 0.60 (Al Khaleej Saihat). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Kholood, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 57% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 62% | Al Khaleej Saihat 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.20 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.699 / defence 1.318 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.988 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.432. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Al Kholood games / 60 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 24% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1.89. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 40% | Al Khaleej Saihat 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 24% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Kholood 1.20 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.699 / def 1.318 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.988 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Kholood 2 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 24% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (3 meetings): Al Kholood 2W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.70) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
24%
4.14
23%
4.30
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.06
1.86
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
16%
6.45
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
4%
26.72
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.86 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 20W 5D 35L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 29L across 60 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.08 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 11W 2D 17L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.40 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 20W 5D 35L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
1
Draws
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Al Kholood 2-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Kholood and 70% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Kholood's games and 77% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Kholood's matches and 70% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.20 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.86 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Kholood beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.70 / defence 1.32 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 24% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 53%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 62%, Al Khaleej Saihat 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.08 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.