Al Kholood 1-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Thursday 30 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Kholood's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Al Kholood) versus 1.40 (Al-Fayha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Kholood, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 5–0 with Al Kholood winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 57% versus Al-Fayha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 64% | Al-Fayha 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.778 / defence 1.301 | Al-Fayha attack 0.873 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.398. Al Kholood's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Al Kholood games / 63 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 33% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Al Kholood 40% | Al-Fayha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 33% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Kholood 1.37 / Al-Fayha 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.778 / def 1.301 | Al-Fayha attack 0.873 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al-Fayha xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 30 April 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Al Kholood 1 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 33% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Kholood 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
33%
3.04
24%
4.11
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.96
1.59
Al-Fayha xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.59 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 6D 36L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.11 PPG from 63 outings (17W 19D 27L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Kholood's home form reads 11W 3D 17L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.90 points per game from 31 outings (7W 7D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.98 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Current Season
Al-Fayha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 21W 6D 36L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 17W 19D 27L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.16 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Al Kholood won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Fayha?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 52%, Al-Fayha 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al Kholood and 61% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 32% of games; Al-Fayha in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 45% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al Kholood's matches and 61% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Kholood and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 1.59 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.30 against Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 33% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 43%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 64%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.