Al Kholood 1-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Ettifaq travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al Kholood in Pro League (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 18:20 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Kholood stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al Kholood at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Kholood are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Ettifaq away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ettifaq are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Kholood, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2025, ended Al Kholood 3–2 Al-Ettifaq — a Al Kholood win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Kholood trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 60% and Al-Ettifaq 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 57% | Al-Ettifaq 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.12 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.792 / defence 1.191 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.094 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.436. Al Kholood's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Al Kholood's last 30 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 64.

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.53 | Draw 4.24 | Al-Ettifaq 1.84. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Kholood's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Kholood 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 70% (last 10 away games).

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