Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Al-Ittihad FC are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 0.90 for Al Khaleej Saihat. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Ittihad FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Al Khaleej Saihat managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 4–4 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ittihad FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 65% and Al Khaleej Saihat 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 56% | Al Khaleej Saihat 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.786 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.081 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.385. Al Khaleej Saihat bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Al-Ittihad FC games / 57 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.70. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.882 / def 0.786 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.081 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 46% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 3 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (1.08x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.71
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.18
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.18 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 57 games, going 37W 11D 9L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.12 PPG from 57 outings (17W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 23W 1D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.44 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 11D 9L in their last 57 games (2.14 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Al-Ittihad FC, 82% for Al Khaleej Saihat — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al-Ittihad FC and 75% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 82% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.18 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.79 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 56%, Al Khaleej Saihat 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.