Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 October 2021 at 18:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.17 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 0W 5D 1L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.83 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Ittihad FC have the edge — a 1.34 PPG advantage (2.17 vs 0.83) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 67% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.99 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.359 / defence 0.965 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.743 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.247. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Al-Ittihad FC games / 6 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 18:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.99 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.359 / def 0.965 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.743 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 18:20 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 60% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 0W-5D-1L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.36x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
60%
1.67
27%
3.72
13%
7.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.89
0.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
7.62
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
55.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.89 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 4W 1D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 0W 5D 1L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 5D 1L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 67%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 33% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.99 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.89 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.74 / defence 1.23, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 13%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 67%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.