Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-0 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Al Najma's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Najma's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Al Najma's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al Najma and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 4–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Najma half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% and Al Najma 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Al Najma 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 xG and Al Najma 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.260 / defence 0.679 | Al Najma attack 0.575 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.403. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 24 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% | Draw 15% | Al Najma 6%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.25 | Draw 6.67 | Al Najma 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al Najma 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% | Draw 15% | Al Najma 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 / Al Najma 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.260 / def 0.679 | Al Najma attack 0.575 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Al Najma xG
39%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 - 0 Al Najma.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 80% chance of winning, Al Najma a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Najma 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Al Najma (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Al Najma's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. Flip it around — Al Najma's attack (0.57x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
80%
1.26
15%
6.75
6%
17.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.05
0.55
Al Najma xG
1.26
80%
Home win
6.75
15%
Draw
17.89
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
8%
12.26
Win to Nil
46%
2.17
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.55 for Al Najma, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 24 games, going 17W 7D 0L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Najma sit at 0.33 PPG from 24 outings (1W 5D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.09 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 9W 3D 0L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Najma have taken 0.17 points per game from 12 outings (0W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 0.92 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Najma in 67%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 17W 7D 0L in their last 24 games (2.42 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 1W 5D 18L in their last 24 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al Najma away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Najma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Najma in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 2, Al Najma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-0 Al Najma.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%, Al Najma 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 67% for Al Najma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al Najma in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Najma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 58% of Al Najma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 67% of Al Najma's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Najma tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Al Najma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Najma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Najma 4-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.51 xG and Al Najma 0.55 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.68 against Al Najma attack 0.57 / defence 1.33, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% | Draw 15% | Al Najma 6%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, Al Najma 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Najma's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.