Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Faisaly FC make the trip to King Fahd International Stadium to face Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at King Fahd International Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd International Stadium. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Fahd International Stadium this season.
Al-Faisaly FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Hilal Saudi FC. A 1.40 PPG lead over Al-Faisaly FC (2.70 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Faisaly FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% versus Al-Faisaly FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% | Al-Faisaly FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.71 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.311 / defence 0.998 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.555 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 29 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Draw 24% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Faisaly FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Faisaly FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Draw 24% | Al-Faisaly FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.71 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.311 / def 0.998 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.555 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Al-Faisaly FC xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 61% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Faisaly FC 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.31) and Al-Faisaly FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Faisaly FC's attack (0.56x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.26
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.45
0.74
Al-Faisaly FC xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
3%
35.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 10.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.74 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 29 games, going 19W 7D 3L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Faisaly FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 29 outings (7W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 10W 2D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Faisaly FC have taken 0.43 points per game from 14 outings (0W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.93 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 19W 7D 3L in their last 29 games (2.21 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 7W 12D 10L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Faisaly FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 3, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%, Al-Faisaly FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 29% (Al-Faisaly FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 36% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 29% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al-Faisaly FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 2-1 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.71 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.00 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.56 / defence 1.22, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61% | Draw 24% | Al-Faisaly FC 16%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%, Al-Faisaly FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.