Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten meet at King Fahd International Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 August 2021 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 3.00 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 0L. Last five: W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 3.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Al Baten's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.43 xG and Al Baten 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.898 / defence 1.030 | Al Baten attack 0.841 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.092. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 2 Al Baten games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Al Baten 4.55. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.43 / Al Baten 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.898 / def 1.030 | Al Baten attack 0.841 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al Baten xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 27 August 2021 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 46% chance of winning, Al Baten a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W. Al Baten (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al Baten's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.84x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
46%
2.20
32%
3.11
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.38
0.95
Al Baten xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
5%
18.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.95 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Baten, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Baten heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Baten in 100%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al Baten
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al Baten in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al Baten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 100% of Al Baten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 100% of Al Baten's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Hilal Saudi FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al Baten drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.43 xG and Al Baten 0.95 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Baten landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Al Baten attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 22%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al Baten 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Baten managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.