Al-Hazm 1-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Shabab to Ar-Rass Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 11:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Pro League appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.11 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al Shabab's 2.20 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Hazm, 1 for Al Shabab and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Al Shabab trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 28% versus Al Shabab 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 28% | Al Shabab 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.04 xG and Al Shabab 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.769 / defence 1.102 | Al Shabab attack 1.137 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.136. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Shabab bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Al-Hazm games / 18 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Al Shabab 2.22. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 33% | Al Shabab 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 11:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Hazm 1.04 / Al Shabab 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.769 / def 1.102 | Al Shabab attack 1.137 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Al Shabab xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kicked off at 11:50 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Al-Hazm 1 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 26% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.77) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
26%
3.77
29%
3.51
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.46
1.42
Al Shabab xG
3.77
26%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
15.67
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.42 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 3W 5D 10L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 9W 7D 2L from 18 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.89 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 9W 7D 2L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.12 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
0
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Shabab have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-4 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 25%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al-Hazm) and 50% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al Shabab in 38%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 50% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 50% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Hazm 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 1-2 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.04 xG and Al Shabab 1.42 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Al Shabab attack 1.14 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 26% | Draw 29% | Al Shabab 45%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 28%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.