Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Shabab to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 August 2026 at 16:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Hazm's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Shabab haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 1.00 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Shabab in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Shabab have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Al Shabab winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Shabab trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 59% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 59% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.48 xG and Al Shabab 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.983 / defence 1.014 | Al Shabab attack 0.912 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 34 Al-Hazm games / 34 Al Shabab games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 41% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Hazm 1.48 / Al Shabab 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.983 / def 1.014 | Al Shabab attack 0.912 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab is scheduled to kick off at 16:05 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 41% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 6W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.98) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.74
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.77
1.28
Al Shabab xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.28 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 11W 9D 14L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. Al-Hazm haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al Shabab's form line: 8W 11D 15L from 34 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. Al Shabab haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Hazm on 1.24 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (8W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 7D 8L from 17 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.29 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Pre-Season
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.53 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
0
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Shabab have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-4 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 59%, Al Shabab 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Al-Hazm) and 29% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Shabab in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 47% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 29% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.