Al-Hazm 3-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Al-Hazm take on Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Al-Fayha travel to Ar-Rass Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ar-Rass Stadium, Al-Hazm have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Ar-Rass Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Fayha are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Fayha 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Hazm 28% | Al-Fayha 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 32% | Al-Fayha 16%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.82 xG and Al-Fayha 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.662 / defence 1.126 | Al-Fayha attack 0.588 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.209. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Al-Hazm games / 25 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 33% | Draw 35% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Fayha 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Al-Fayha's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 20% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 33% | Draw 35% | Al-Fayha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Al-Hazm 0.82 / Al-Fayha 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.662 / def 1.126 | Al-Fayha attack 0.588 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:20 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Hazm 3 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 33% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.66) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
35%
2.85
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
1.62
0.80
Al-Fayha xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 15.8 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.80 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 3W 5D 17L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 8W 9D 8L from 25 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Fayha are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 7L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.80 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Fayha in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 17L in their last 25 games (0.56 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 8W 9D 8L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Hazm's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.83 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 33%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Hazm and 25% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Fayha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 25% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Al-Hazm cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al-Fayha 3-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.82 xG and Al-Fayha 0.80 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.66 / defence 1.13 against Al-Fayha attack 0.59 / defence 1.03, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 33% | Draw 35% | Al-Fayha 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Al-Hazm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 24% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 32%, Al-Fayha 16%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.