Al-Fayha 0-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 May 2022 at 17:20 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.20 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 37% versus Al Taawon 74%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 18% | Al Taawon 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.96 xG and Al Taawon 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.679 / defence 0.680 | Al Taawon attack 0.926 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.324. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.680 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Al-Fayha games / 27 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Taawon 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al Taawon 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al Taawon's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 20% | Al Taawon 80%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 17:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Taawon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Fayha 0.96 / Al Taawon 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.679 / def 0.680 | Al Taawon attack 0.926 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al Taawon xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:20 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fayha 0 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 37% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.68) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.93x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
37%
2.69
33%
3.05
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.80
0.83
Al Taawon xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 13.8 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.83 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 8W 10D 9L from 27 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 10L across 27 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.07 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 5D 1L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 2W 6D 5L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.48 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 74%.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 6W 11D 10L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Fayha's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 15%, Al Taawon 85% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 8% (Al-Fayha) and 69% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 85% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 85% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 69% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.96 xG and Al Taawon 0.83 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.68 / defence 0.68 against Al Taawon attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 37% | Draw 33% | Al Taawon 30%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 18%, Al Taawon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.26 PPG, Al Taawon 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.