Al-Fayha 0-5 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Raed travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 16:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Raed — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Fayha) versus 1.10 (Al-Raed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fayha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Raed in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al-Raed and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Raed trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 64% versus Al-Raed 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 58% | Al-Raed 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.24 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.959 / defence 1.245 | Al-Raed attack 0.975 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.236. Data: 36 Al-Fayha games / 36 Al-Raed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 60% | Al-Raed 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Fayha 1.24 / Al-Raed 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.959 / def 1.245 | Al-Raed attack 0.975 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al-Raed xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha 0 - 5 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 31% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fayha 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.96) and Al-Raed's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
31%
3.19
25%
3.94
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.74
1.50
Al-Raed xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.28
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.50 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 11D 14L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed's form line: 9W 11D 16L from 36 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.22 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.06 PPG; Al-Raed away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 4, Al-Raed have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Raed?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Raed 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 44% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 39% of games; Al-Raed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Fayha's games and 61% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 44% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al-Fayha 0-5 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.24 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Raed outscored their 1.50 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.96 / defence 1.25 against Al-Raed attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 43%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 58%, Al-Raed 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Raed's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.22 PPG, Al-Raed 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.