Al-Fayha 0-3 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's home record at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2022, ended 2–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 52% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 44% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.33 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.796 / defence 0.864 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.441 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.260. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Al-Fayha games / 23 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 58% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.72 | Draw 3.33 | Al Khaleej Saihat 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Al Khaleej Saihat's lower xG of 0.48 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Khaleej Saihat 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 58% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 29% | xG Al-Fayha 1.33 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.796 / def 0.864 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.441 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.48
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
29%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fayha 0 - 3 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 58% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.80x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.44x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.48.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 2-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
58%
1.74
30%
3.36
13%
7.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.81
0.48
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
7.84
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.50
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
62%
1.62
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
3%
29.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 21.8 | 10.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.48 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 7D 10L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 5W 2D 16L from 23 games, 0.74 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.74 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 10L from 11 away games — 0.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Khaleej Saihat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 0.74 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 26%.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 5W 2D 16L in their last 23 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 0-3 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 46% (Al-Fayha) and 9% (Al Khaleej Saihat) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Al-Fayha and 27% for Al Khaleej Saihat.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Khaleej Saihat in 82%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 9% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 27% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Fayha 0-3 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.33 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.48 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Khaleej Saihat outscored their 0.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.44 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 58% | Draw 30% | Al Khaleej Saihat 13%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Al Khaleej Saihat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Al Khaleej Saihat 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.09 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.