Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 13:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 4W 2D 3L from 9 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.56 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.56 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.56 PPG ahead (1.56 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Al-Fayha's 25% and Al-Hazm's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 56% versus Al-Hazm 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 33% | Al-Hazm 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.10 xG and Al-Hazm 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.902 / defence 0.849 | Al-Hazm attack 0.644 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.046. Data: 9 Al-Fayha games / 10 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 48% | Draw 33% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Hazm 5.26. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Al-Hazm's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.67 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 25% | Al-Hazm 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 13:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 48% | Draw 33% | Al-Hazm 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 29% | xG Al-Fayha 1.10 / Al-Hazm 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.902 / def 0.849 | Al-Hazm attack 0.644 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Al-Hazm xG
29%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 13:55 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fayha 1 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 48% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.1%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
48%
2.07
33%
3.07
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.8%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.67
0.57
Al-Hazm xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.44
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
56%
1.77
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.8 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.7 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.57 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 4L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fayha by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 22%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fayha's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 2.50 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fayha 25% BTTS, Al-Hazm 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fayha and 0% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 0% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 0% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Fayha edge out Al-Hazm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Hazm 1-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.10 xG and Al-Hazm 0.57 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Al-Hazm attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 48% | Draw 33% | Al-Hazm 19%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 33%, Al-Hazm 11%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.