Al-Fateh 3-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Taawon to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 2W 3D 2L from 7 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.29 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 0.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Pro League appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 0W 3D 4L from 7 outings — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.57 per game and conceding 2.43. Conceding 2.43 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Fateh have the edge — a 0.86 PPG advantage (1.29 vs 0.43) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 29% and Al Taawon 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 0% | Al Taawon 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.835 / defence 1.026 | Al Taawon attack 0.960 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.232. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Al-Fateh games / 7 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Al Taawon 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 33% | Al Taawon 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fateh 1.22 / Al Taawon 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.835 / def 1.026 | Al Taawon attack 0.960 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al Taawon xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kicked off at 15:50 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fateh 3 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 0.57 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 2.43 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.83x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
34%
2.94
32%
3.10
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
Al Taawon xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.21 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 3D 2L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 0.43 PPG from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.57 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 100%.
Defensively: Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.33 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2021, when Al-Fateh won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Taawon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al Taawon 3-2 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 33%, Al Taawon at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fateh and 67% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Fateh's games and 100% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 67% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Taawon 3-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al Taawon 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taawon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Al Taawon attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 34%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 0%, Al Taawon 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taawon's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.