Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Al-Fateh welcome Al Taawon to Al Fateh club stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.80 PPG versus Al Taawon's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Al Taawon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Al-Fateh's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taawon have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Al Taawon 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 41% | Al Taawon 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.24 xG and Al Taawon 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.787 / defence 0.824 | Al Taawon attack 1.104 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Al-Fateh games / 38 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Al Taawon 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fateh 1.24 / Al Taawon 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.787 / def 0.824 | Al Taawon attack 1.104 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al Taawon xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 34% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 3 | Al Taawon 5W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.20
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.48
1.24
Al Taawon xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.24 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 39 games, going 9W 13D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (15W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.59 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.37 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Al Taawon won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al Taawon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 58%, Al Taawon 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fateh) and 63% (Al Taawon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Fateh's games and 68% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Fateh's matches and 63% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.