Al-Fateh 2-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al Shabab travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 January 2026, 13:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Shabab — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 0.80 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al Shabab in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al Shabab and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Fateh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 69% and Al Shabab 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 62% | Al Shabab 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.50 xG and Al Shabab 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.127 / defence 1.139 | Al Shabab attack 0.728 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.452. Data: 45 Al-Fateh games / 45 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 44% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 13:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 44% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Fateh 1.50 / Al Shabab 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.127 / def 1.139 | Al Shabab attack 0.728 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kicked off at 13:10 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh 2 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 44% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 3 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (1.13) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
44%
2.30
27%
3.74
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.71
1.20
Al Shabab xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.20 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 14W 8D 23L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 15L across 45 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.11 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 9W 3D 10L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.64 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.36 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 4, Al Shabab have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 82%, Al Shabab at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al-Fateh) and 50% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Al-Fateh's games and 59% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Fateh's matches and 50% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al Shabab 2-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.50 xG and Al Shabab 1.20 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Shabab landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Al Shabab attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 44% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 30%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al Shabab 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.11 PPG, Al Shabab 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.