Al-Fateh 3-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025 at 16:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Al Fateh Club Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 1.70 PPG versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Al-Fateh's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2025, ended 0–9 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Fateh 65% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.76 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.084 / defence 0.857 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.400 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.444. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Al-Fateh games / 65 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 39% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 39% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Fateh 1.76 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.084 / def 0.857 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.400 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:55 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Fateh 3 - 4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 39% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
39%
2.54
22%
4.49
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.50
1.73
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.73 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh come into this having played 65 games, going 21W 15D 29L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.52 PPG from 65 outings (52W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fateh's home form reads 12W 8D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.41 points per game from 32 outings (24W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.91 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 60%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Current Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 21W 15D 29L in their last 65 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 52W 8D 5L in their last 65 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 72%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Al-Fateh and 72% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al-Fateh's games and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Fateh's matches and 72% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hilal Saudi FC defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 3-4 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.76 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.40 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 39% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.