Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 1.60 PPG across 5 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 1L. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm (all games): 1W 2D 2L across 5 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Fateh. A 0.60 PPG lead over Al-Hazm (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 40% versus Al-Hazm 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 0% | Al-Hazm 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.54 xG and Al-Hazm 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.951 / defence 0.998 | Al-Hazm attack 0.593 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.194. Al-Hazm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Al-Fateh games / 5 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 54% | Draw 32% | Al-Hazm 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.85 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Hazm 7.14. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Hazm 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 54% | Draw 32% | Al-Hazm 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Fateh 1.54 / Al-Hazm 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.951 / def 0.998 | Al-Hazm attack 0.593 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Al-Hazm xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 54% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 14% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.95) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.59x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
54%
1.85
32%
3.08
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.25
0.71
Al-Hazm xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
3%
34.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.71 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Fateh are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 40%, Al-Hazm 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Fateh and 40% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 40% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 40% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.54 xG and Al-Hazm 0.71 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Al-Hazm attack 0.59 / defence 1.24, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 54% | Draw 32% | Al-Hazm 14%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 0%, Al-Hazm 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Hazm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hazm conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.