Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Thursday 15 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 4D 3L at Al Fateh club stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.20 for Al-Hazm. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Hazm 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 42% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.32 xG and Al-Hazm 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.787 / defence 0.824 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Al-Fateh games / 38 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Hazm 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fateh 1.32 / Al-Hazm 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.787 / def 0.824 | Al-Hazm attack 1.031 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 April 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 38% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.79) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (1.03x) against Al-Fateh's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.21
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.47
1.16
Al-Hazm xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.16 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 12D 17L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.21 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 7D 8L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.37 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-1 Al-Hazm.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Hazm 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fateh) and 58% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Hazm in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Fateh's games and 63% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 58% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.