Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al-Fayha travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.80 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Fayha, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Al-Fateh.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Fayha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Fayha trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 41% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.13 xG and Al-Fayha 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.792 / defence 0.836 | Al-Fayha attack 0.833 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 39 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 36% | Al-Fayha 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Fayha 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 36% | Al-Fayha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Fateh 1.13 / Al-Fayha 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.792 / def 0.836 | Al-Fayha attack 0.833 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Wednesday 12 May 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 38% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 5 | Al-Fayha 5W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
38%
2.65
36%
2.80
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.04
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.91 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 9W 13D 17L from 39 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 18L across 39 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.03 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.37 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
5
Draws
5
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fateh) and 63% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Fayha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Fateh's games and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Fateh's matches and 63% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.