Al-Fateh 4-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 14:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's home record at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 1.00 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 0 for Al-Ettifaq and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 45% versus Al-Ettifaq 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Ettifaq 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.67 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.169 / defence 1.548 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.909 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.192. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Al-Fateh games / 20 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Ettifaq 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Fateh 1.67 / Al-Ettifaq 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.169 / def 1.548 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.909 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:15 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh 4 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 38% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.17x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.07
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.35
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.22
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.68 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 6W 6D 8L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 4W 8D 8L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.20 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.25 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 games (1.20 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 7, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 50%, Al-Ettifaq 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 60% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Fateh's games and 60% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Fateh's matches and 60% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 4-0 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.67 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.17 / defence 1.55 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.91 / defence 1.23, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 38% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 38%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 40%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.20 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.