Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Al-Ettifaq's 30% rate and Al-Nassr's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al-Nassr and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 45% versus Al-Nassr 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Nassr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.73 xG and Al-Nassr 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.809 / defence 0.997 | Al-Nassr attack 1.245 / defence 0.619. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.264. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.619 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Al-Ettifaq games / 58 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 17% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 58%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Al-Nassr 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 17% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.73 / Al-Nassr 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.809 / def 0.997 | Al-Nassr attack 1.245 / def 0.619 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Nassr xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 17% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
17%
5.82
25%
3.96
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.30
1.57
Al-Nassr xG
5.82
17%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
4%
27.98
28%
3.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.57 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 16D 25L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.14 PPG from 58 outings (38W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 11W 7D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.93 points per game from 29 outings (17W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.02 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
Al-Nassr
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 16D 25L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 38W 10D 10L in their last 58 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Al-Nassr 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 48%, Al-Nassr 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al-Ettifaq) and 55% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 48%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 34% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 55% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr finished level at 1-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.73 xG and Al-Nassr 1.57 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Al-Nassr attack 1.25 / defence 0.62, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 17% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 58%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Nassr 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.