Al-Ettifaq 0-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Nassr.

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Match Analysis

Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 4). Kick-off is Friday 20 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al-Ettifaq — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Nassr have recorded 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ettifaq 1.80 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 2 for Al-Nassr and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 1–3 Al-Nassr — a Al-Nassr win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al-Ettifaq trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Nassr trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 43% versus Al-Nassr 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 35% | Al-Nassr 78%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.18 xG and Al-Nassr 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / defence 0.835 | Al-Nassr attack 1.392 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.285. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.392, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 37 games and Al-Nassr's last 37.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Nassr 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 3.35 | Draw 3.90 | Al-Nassr 2.25. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 60% (last 10 away games).

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