Al Baten 2-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Baten at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Baten face Al-Raed.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Raed travel to Al-Batin FC Stadium to take on Al Baten in Pro League (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Baten stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al Baten's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Baten are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Al-Raed's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Baten 0.80 PPG, Al-Raed 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Al Baten, 1 for Al-Raed and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2021, ended Al Baten 0–1 Al-Raed — a Al-Raed win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Baten in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 42% versus Al-Raed 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 42% | Al-Raed 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.53 xG and Al-Raed 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.927 / defence 1.277 | Al-Raed attack 0.888 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.124. Al-Raed's defence rating of 1.396 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Baten's projected output up. Al Baten's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Data: built from Al Baten's last 24 games and Al-Raed's last 24.
Result probabilities: Al Baten 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.31 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Baten as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Baten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Baten's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Baten 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al Baten 1.53 / Al-Raed 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.927 / def 1.277 | Al-Raed attack 0.888 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al-Raed xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed FAQs
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Raed kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Al Baten 2 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Raed is a Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 43% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Raed will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Baten vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Baten's last 24 games and Al-Raed's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
43%
2.31
25%
4.00
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
Al-Raed xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.27 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Baten come into this having played 24 games, going 5W 7D 12L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Al-Raed sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Baten on 0.92 PPG, Al-Raed on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Baten's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across their last 12 home games, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Raed have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Raed's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Baten are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Baten (Home) vs Al-Raed (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed Form FAQs
What form are Al Baten and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Baten's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Raed have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Al Baten's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
0
Draws
3
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Raed?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Raed have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Raed last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2023: Al-Raed 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 42%, Al-Raed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Baten) and 67% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 42% of games; Al-Raed in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Baten vs Al-Raed Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Baten and Al-Raed matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al Baten's recent matches and 50% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Baten and Al-Raed matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Baten's recent games and 67% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Raed matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Al Baten's recent matches and 75% of Al-Raed's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Baten cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al-Raed 2-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.53 xG and Al-Raed 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.93 / defence 1.28 against Al-Raed attack 0.89 / defence 1.40, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 43% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 32%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 42%, Al-Raed 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 0.92 PPG, Al-Raed 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Baten win broke the near-deadlock. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.