Al Baten 0-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Baten at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al-Hazm travel to Al-Batin FC Stadium to take on Al Baten. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Baten stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Baten have posted 3W 1D 2L at Al-Batin FC Stadium — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Baten are significantly better at Al-Batin FC Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Al Baten) versus 0.80 (Al-Hazm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Al Baten trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Al-Hazm trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Baten 33% | Al-Hazm 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Baten 42% | Al-Hazm 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.12 xG and Al-Hazm 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.924 / defence 1.342 | Al-Hazm attack 0.594 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.069. Data: 12 Al Baten games / 12 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Hazm 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Baten are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Baten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 33% | Al-Hazm 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Al Baten 1.12 / Al-Hazm 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.924 / def 1.342 | Al-Hazm attack 0.594 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Hazm xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Hazm?
Al Baten 0 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 42% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Hazm in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Baten's attack rating (0.92) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.25
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al Baten xG
Total xG
1.97
0.85
Al-Hazm xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al Baten and 0.85 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Al Baten have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 3D 6L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Baten on 1.00 PPG, Al-Hazm on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Baten have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Baten are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.75 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 25%.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Baten's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Baten
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2022, when Al-Hazm 2-3 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Hazm?
Al Baten have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al Baten 20% BTTS, Al-Hazm 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al Baten and 0% for Al-Hazm.
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 60% of games; Al-Hazm in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al Baten's recent matches and 0% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Baten's recent games and 0% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Baten's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten and Al-Hazm finished level at 0-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.12 xG and Al-Hazm 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Baten fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.92 / defence 1.34 against Al-Hazm attack 0.59 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 42% | Draw 31% | Al-Hazm 28%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 42%, Al-Hazm 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 1.00 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Baten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.