Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 3 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% versus Al-Ittihad FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.452 / defence 0.760 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.118 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.403. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 58 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.452 / def 0.760 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.118 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 55% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.32
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.19
1.19
Al-Ittihad FC xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
3%
34.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.19 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 39W 9D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 38W 11D 9L from 58 games, 2.16 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 2.17 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.28 PPG from 29 outings (20W 6D 3L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 14W 10D 5L from 29 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.03 scored and 1.09 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's attacking output running into Al-Ahli Jeddah's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 39W 9D 10L in their last 58 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 38W 11D 9L in their last 58 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.28 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ahli Jeddah go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 62%, Al-Ittihad FC at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 55% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 72% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.00 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.45 / defence 0.76 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 22%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, Al-Ittihad FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.