Al-Adalah 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fayha make the trip to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to face Al-Adalah in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Adalah (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al-Adalah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.20 PPG for Al-Adalah against 0.40 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 20% versus Al-Fayha 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Adalah 40% | Al-Fayha 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 0.82 xG and Al-Fayha 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.673 / defence 1.240 | Al-Fayha attack 0.810 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.002. Al-Adalah's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Al-Adalah games / 35 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Fayha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al-Adalah's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Adalah 20% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Adalah 0.82 / Al-Fayha 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.673 / def 1.240 | Al-Fayha attack 0.810 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Fayha xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Adalah 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 29% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Adalah's attack rating (0.67) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.81x) against Al-Adalah's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
29%
3.49
32%
3.08
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
1.82
1.01
Al-Fayha xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 16.3 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 1.01 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Al-Adalah have picked up 0.20 PPG on a 0W 1D 4L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Adalah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, 0.40 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.20 PPG for Al-Adalah against 0.40 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Adalah have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Al-Fayha in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Adalah
1
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha?
Al-Adalah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Al-Fayha tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Adalah 20%, Al-Fayha 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Al-Adalah and 20% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Al-Adalah have failed to score in 80% of games; Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 60% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Adalah vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Adalah's recent games and 20% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Adalah and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Adalah have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Adalah defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Adalah beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 0.82 xG and Al-Fayha 1.01 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Adalah beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.67 / defence 1.24 against Al-Fayha attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Fayha 39%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Adalah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 40%, Al-Fayha 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Adalah 0.20 PPG, Al-Fayha 0.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Adalah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Adalah scored 2 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.