Abha 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Fateh make the trip to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to face Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 16:20 UTC.
Current Form
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games (0.88 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Abha have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fateh (all games): 3W 3D 2L across 8 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al-Fateh arrive in superior form — a 0.62 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.88) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 75% versus Al-Fateh 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Abha 62% | Al-Fateh 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 0.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.883 / defence 1.410 | Al-Fateh attack 0.747 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.181. Data: 8 Abha games / 8 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 23% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 42%. Fair-value odds: Abha 4.35 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Fateh 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Abha 100% | Al-Fateh 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 23% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Abha 0.88 / Al-Fateh 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.883 / def 1.410 | Al-Fateh attack 0.747 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Fateh xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Abha vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:20 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Fateh?
Abha 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Abha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Abha vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 23% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 42% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Abha and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fateh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Al-Fateh in?
Abha (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Abha's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.75x) against Abha's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
23%
4.29
35%
2.86
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Abha xG
Total xG
2.12
1.24
Al-Fateh xG
4.29
23%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.88
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Abha and 1.24 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Abha come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 1D 5L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Abha's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.12 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Fateh in 25%.
Defensively: Al-Fateh in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 3-0 on 10 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Abha 2-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 100%, Al-Fateh 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Abha) and 0% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 50%; Al-Fateh in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Abha's games and 25% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Abha's recent games and 0% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 0.88 xG and Al-Fateh 1.24 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.88 / defence 1.41 against Al-Fateh attack 0.75 / defence 0.89, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 23% | Draw 35% | Al-Fateh 42%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Abha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 62%, Al-Fateh 12%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Abha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.