Abha 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al Baten at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 January 2022 at 11:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Baten have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Baten have posted 0W 3D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.43 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Abha are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Abha have won 0, Al Baten 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Al Baten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Al Baten in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 56% versus Al Baten 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Abha 38% | Al Baten 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.20 xG and Al Baten 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.994 / defence 1.011 | Al Baten attack 0.666 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.187. Data: 16 Abha games / 16 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 45% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 24%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Al Baten 4.17. Abha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Abha 75% | Al Baten 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 11:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 45% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Abha 1.20 / Al Baten 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.994 / def 1.011 | Al Baten attack 0.666 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Abha (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Al Baten xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al Baten kick off?
Abha vs Al Baten kicked off at 11:50 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Baten?
Abha 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Abha vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Baten part of?
Abha vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 45% chance of winning, Al Baten a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Abha and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Baten?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al Baten 1W.
What form are Abha and Al Baten in?
Abha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Al Baten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
45%
2.25
32%
3.13
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Abha xG
Total xG
2.00
0.80
Al Baten xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Abha and 0.80 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.19 PPG, Al Baten on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Baten away?
Abha's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.57 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Abha or Al Baten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al Baten in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Abha go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Abha's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Abha
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Abha have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Abha 3-2 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Baten?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 71%, Al Baten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Abha) and 29% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al Baten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Abha's games and 43% of Al Baten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Abha's recent games and 29% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Baten tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Baten 1-0 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.20 xG and Al Baten 0.80 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Al Baten attack 0.67 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 45% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 24%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 38%, Al Baten 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.19 PPG, Al Baten 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.