Zenit 3-1 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zenit (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zenit face Fakel.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Fakel travel to Gazprom Arena to take on Zenit. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zenit stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's home record at Gazprom Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gazprom Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gazprom Arena this season.
Fakel — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Zenit are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Zenit, 0 for Fakel and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Zenit trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Fakel trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 45% versus Fakel 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zenit 47% | Fakel 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 2.04 xG and Fakel 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.056 / defence 0.652 | Fakel attack 0.734 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.294. Fakel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Zenit's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Zenit's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Zenit games / 38 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 70% | Draw 20% | Fakel 10%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Fakel 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zenit 10% | Fakel 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gazprom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 70% | Draw 20% | Fakel 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 40% | xG Zenit 2.04 / Fakel 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.056 / def 0.652 | Fakel attack 0.734 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Zenit (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Fakel xG
40%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs Fakel kick off?
Zenit vs Fakel kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Gazprom Arena.
What was the final score in Zenit vs Fakel?
Zenit 3 - 1 Fakel.
Where is Zenit vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Gazprom Arena.
What competition is Zenit vs Fakel part of?
Zenit vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 70% chance of winning, Fakel a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Zenit and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Fakel?
Record (4 meetings): Zenit 2W | Draws 2 | Fakel 0W.
What form are Zenit and Fakel in?
Zenit (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Fakel (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.06) and Fakel's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
70%
1.42
20%
5.07
10%
10.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Zenit xG
Total xG
2.66
0.62
Fakel xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
10.10
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
38%
2.64
1%
77.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zenit and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Zenit and 0.62 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs Fakel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zenit's recent record stands at 23W 8D 7L from 38 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fakel, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 17L across 38 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fakel heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 11W 3D 4L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fakel's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zenit are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 0.66 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Fakel in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and Fakel in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 23W 8D 7L in their last 38 games (2.03 PPG), while Fakel have gone 8W 13D 17L in their last 38 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or Fakel away?
Zenit's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.00 PPG; Fakel away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Zenit or Fakel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Fakel in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zenit and Fakel runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zenit have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Zenit's record when hosting Fakel specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Zenit
2
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and Fakel?
From 6 meetings on record, Zenit have won 4, Fakel have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Fakel 0-2 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and Fakel?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zenit see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 33%, Fakel 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Zenit) and 44% (Fakel).
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Fakel in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play Fakel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Zenit's recent matches and 39% of Fakel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zenit vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zenit's recent games and 44% of Fakel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zenit and Fakel tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Fakel in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zenit cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fakel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Fakel 3-1 at Gazprom Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 2.04 xG and Fakel 0.62 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zenit beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.06 / defence 0.65 against Fakel attack 0.73 / defence 1.39, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 70% | Draw 20% | Fakel 10%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 47%, Fakel 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Fakel's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Fakel (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.